Tuesday 12 March 2013

Plan A...Plan B...

Melbourne Weather - the only thing you can count on is that you can't count on it!

One day its stinkin' hot, the next it's blowing trees over into power lines....and wait for a couple of hours and it's a perfect day! We Melbournites have been training over the last few months in all conditions and I guess it better prepares us for racing for the Melbourne Ironman (home ground/stupid weather advantage).

I went onto 3 long range forecast websites and have attained 3 different weather predictions.






However, the weather for Melbourne has been the hottest on record - having had over 7 consecutive days over 30 degrees. Rather than going with the forecast of (below) 30 degrees for the last week of March - pretty much the middle of autumn, other sites have predicted that the weather will actually be over 30 for the 24th March. Last year, the temps were 10 - 18 and little winds (perfect race day conditions).

Anyways - enough of analysing the weather...the point of this entry is that we do need to prepare for all (and any) conditions come race day. Be it warm, humid, cold, windy. I have submitted my plan to the head coaches of Tri Alliance which covers everything from my race strategy, nutrition and clothing - all catering for several different conditions.

For my race plan - I have set out 3 goal times for all 3 legs of the race. So it pretty much looks like a matrix and my end result may be a combination of all 9 possibilities. I have the following for Swim, Bike and Run:
1) Best Scenario - Perfect conditions inc body being 100%, mental strength at max.
2) Comfortable/Achievable/Realistic Goal - What I am comfortable in achieving based on my training load, my age (32) and triathlon age (years I have been in this sport).
3) Conservative - Getting through the day based on conserving energy, dealing with keeping upright on the bike (if it is windy), running a marathon based on niggles.

The OCD in me has even set out different clothing strategies for the day - what to put into my T1 and T2 bags to cater for extreme conditions - both warm and cool. I have also worked out what I am going to place in my special needs bag (on the run) to get me home. I know that no matter how much I prepare, there will be things which can go wrong and I will have to adapt to it - not a problem. For some reason, I can deal with issues on the spot better than something which I can plan for. I will also be too fatigued to stress about it too (a bonus).

I know that for my first Ironman, my first goal is to finish the race - this one I have covered in my strategy. I also need to set plans and processes for different scenarios - this is the engineer in me out to decrease risk and maximise return of investments (the time I have spent training).

As the saying goes - "He who fails to plan, plans to fail"- Winston Churchill.

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